FEAR & GREED INDEX 13
The Fear & Greed Index (found on cnn.com) is one of the easiest indicators to use to determine current market emotion. This simple to read gauge, highlighted in our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), is measured in a range from 0-100, and currently reads 13 as of the close on Friday, April 11, 2025.
This figure remains solidly in the Extreme Fear level, rising only 9 points from last weeks close of 4. As we focus on in our publication and weekly blogs, the market usually reacts to the furthest extremes with some type of reversal (with high probability). During another wild week, the S&P 500 increased about 289 points from 5,074 to 5,363, a 5.7% move, after Wednesday and Friday’s mid-day surges (two of the largest percentage gains in history), sandwiched around another major drop on Thursday. Though the four major indexes; The S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, and Russell 2000 (small cap index) 5-day momentum levels became distorted with the large gains in two of the last three trading days, they remain deep in bear market territory as over 50% of their components continue to trade well under their 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages.
The “Risk-On” sentiment returned, for a few hours, after the global tariff pause announcement mid-day on Wednesday, which caused a massive rally of epic proportions. 10-year bonds surged by weeks end to 4.5%, after beginning the week at 4%. The “risk-off” strategy on selling days now seems to be a sell and hold cash approach, as opposed to the “flight-to-quality” approach of selling stocks to buying bonds, as Consumer Confidence and Sentiment remain at record lows.
The 7 internal factors used to formulate this index are listed on the screen (below):
Market Momentum – (S&P 500 vs its 125-day moving avg) = EXTREME FEAR
Market Volatility (measured by the VIX) = EXTREME FEAR
Put to Call Ratio 5-day avg. (# of Puts (bearish) vs Calls (bullish) = EXTREME FEAR
Stock Price Strength (# of new 52-week highs vs new 52-week lows) = EXTREME FEAR
Stock Price Breadth (# of shares rising vs falling on NYSE) = EXTREME FEAR
Safe-Haven Demand (which measures stocks vs bonds) = EXTREME FEAR
Junk Bond Demand (non-govt. bond yield spread) = FEAR
This week, only 1 of the 7 factors changed levels, as 6 of the 7 remain in the Extreme Fear category. Only Junk Bond Demand (not government sponsored) inched up to Fear. With Market Momentum, Market Volatility, and Safe Haven Demand all in Extreme Fear, patience is a virtue until conditions improve. As we have warned for several weeks, stock selection remains the key with continued weak underlying conditions.
The VIX itself, measured by Market Volatility, decreased slightly, ending the week at 37.5, (from 43.6), which is still very high historically. This raised reading, combined with the ultra-low reading on the Fear & Greed Index, suggested a market bounce higher, which actually occurred twice in three days. The tariff announcement on Wednesday, although it spiked the market for a few hours, did little to quell the volatility and overall uncertainty, as the market gave back a large portion of the gain the next day.
The big news this week, of course, was that 90-day tariff pause for all countries to continue discussions with the U.S., for perceived “fair trade,” with the exception of China. The immediate aftershock in the equity markets, this time, resulted in a surge in all indexes during a 3-hour afternoon time frame. Once again, the wild price action supports our theory that emotion is the main driving factor of short-term market moves, as basically all stocks enjoyed the rise based on “oversold” conditions. Despite the surge, on average, only 22% of all stocks contained within the 4 major indexes are trading over their 200-day moving averages, indicating we are still in bear market territory. Remember, as we have warned for several weeks, any bullish price action may be temporary, so proceed with caution as a potential bottom is being established.
Astrologically, as noted for the past several weeks, the planet Mars has continued its aggressive energies in the sign of Cancer (until April), symbolizing the “protection of the home,” which has continued to be evident by the new administration’s determination to secure and protect the country over the past couple of months. Mars will finally transit back into the sign of Leo this coming Friday, April 18, where it will remain for another 2 months until mid-June. This signifies a return to the sign position of early November to early January, when markets reached their highs after the election. This time, however, the tariff situation and fears of recession could derail that energy, as some global leaders remain stubborn and combative.
Aries season (March 21 – April 19), symbolizing fiery, determined, action-taking energies (Mars), continues with the expected volatility amid the uncertainty regarding these global financial conditions, and the tariff situation. Please review our Sign Language – Aries Season blog, dated 3-8-25 for more details.
This weekend, the treacherous Venus Retrograde (March 1 – April 12), mercifully came to an end after resulting in a 900-point drop in the S&P 500. Venus does remain in the sign of Pisces (which it re-entered during its retrograde) until the end of the month (April 30), bringing back some Piscean energies of confusion, that can extend through what is known as a “shadow” period, which occurs before and after planetary events.
Also, the Mercury Retrograde (March 14 – April 7) has completed, though Mercury will remain in the sign of Aries until the last week of May. Mercury Retrograde again resulted in multiple price reversals, as it signifies mixed communications. As both planets continue to move back and forth between Pisces and Aries for a bit longer (Mercury re-enters Aries on April 19), it is likely to continue to jumble the energies of both signs, reflected by the distorted clarity of the markets. Expect more tumultuous price action for the time being, with this active sky combined with all the personal planets’ changes of direction and signs.
As noted, Aries “season” is often associated with fast beginnings, that quickly fade, which already occurred in the first week of this season, and again this week, so continue to be aware of potential “false breakouts,” and short-term rally reversals. Venus turns direct today (April 13), typically strengthening its energies going forward.
The planet Neptune also transited into the sign of Aries at the end of March, which we discussed fully in our Planet Power – Neptune in Aries blog, dated 3-19-25. It occurred at the same time as the Solar Eclipse in Aries, coinciding with new beginnings (Aries and New Moon), and appeared to have rocked the markets on the last trading day prior to this event, with renewed fears of inflation (Neptune). The emotion related to Aries, with the mystery and confusion of Pisces and Neptune, has contributed to the chaotic state of mind regarding investors. In addition, as we begin a year-long approach to a Saturn/Neptune conjunction, the disconnect between government and the people, and each other, will linger for quite some time. We continue to promote reducing share size on holdings for those with a shorter-term investment time frame. Be especially cautious of “false breakouts” during this activity, as trading is more difficult.
Leading sectors were difficult to identify with the extreme wild swings of the market this week, although energy, healthcare, and basic materials held up well, and gold/silver surged again. For a sustained rally, it is usually important for financials, technology, and industrials, to lead the way, all of which finished with decent gains. In the longer term, certain subsectors of the technology industry are likely to continue their advance into the future, including AI, robotics, quantum computing, and space development (with Pluto in Aquarius, and Uranus upcoming ingress to Gemini in mid-2025).
Gold (ruled by the Sun), and Silver (ruled by the Moon), resumed their upward climb again this week, with gold reaching All-Time Highs (ATH). Mars’ transit through Cancer, which resulted in gains on the previous occasion (from early September to early November of 2024), continues for one more week, through April 18. As we have expressed in recent months, any pullback in these metals has been short-lived, and they continue to be long-term buying opportunities on any declines. The Gold to Silver Ratio (covered in our publication) ended slightly lower at 100.3 this week, after closing at 102.6 last week, indicating silver continues to be a slightly better value buy than gold.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions/movements in the sky, and how they can affect moods, behaviors, world events, and financial markets.
