FEAR & GREED INDEX 22
The Fear & Greed Index (found on cnn.com) is one of the easiest indicators to use to determine current market emotion. This simple to read gauge, highlighted in our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), is measured in a range from 0-100, and currently reads 22 as of the close on Friday, March 28, 2025.
This figure returned to the Extreme Fear level, decreasing by 1 point from last weeks close of 23, after briefly inching into the Fear category early in the week. As we focus on in our publication and weekly blogs, the market usually reacts quickly (with high probability) the further into extreme conditions the reading becomes, but has struggled following the expected relief rally. During the week, the S&P 500 declined about 86 points from 5,667 to 5,581, after Friday’s plunge (no Friday rally for the first time in weeks) on heavy volume. Currently, the four major indexes; The S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, and Russell 2000 (small cap index) remain in bear market territory as they continue to trade under their 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, and all but the Dow Jones (exactly 50%) have far less than 50% of included stocks trading under their 200-day MA. The Dow Jones has significantly decreased, however, in recent days.
The “Risk-Off” sentiment continued for the most part, although some bargain hunters had begun to nibble at leading stocks before Friday. 10-year bonds drifted back to 4.25%, where they ended last week, after remaining in the 4.3% range all week, as the U.S. Dollar saw a little strength before Friday. The current “risk-off” strategy continues to be a sell and hold cash approach, as opposed to the “flight-to-quality” approach of selling stocks to buying bonds, as Consumer Confidence and Sentiment reached 8-month lows.
The 7 internal factors used to formulate this index are listed on the screen (below):
Market Momentum – (S&P 500 vs its 125-day moving avg) = EXTREME FEAR
Market Volatility (measured by the VIX) = NEUTRAL
Put to Call Ratio 5-day avg. (# of Puts (bearish) vs Calls (bullish) = EXTREME FEAR
Stock Price Strength (# of new 52-week highs vs new 52-week lows) = EXTREME FEAR
Stock Price Breadth (# of shares rising vs falling on NYSE) = EXTREME FEAR
Safe-Haven Demand (which measures stocks vs bonds) = EXTREME FEAR
Junk Bond Demand (non-govt. bond yield spread) = NEUTRAL
This week, only 1 of the 7 factors changed levels, as 5 of the 7 remain in the Extreme Fear category. As we have warned for several weeks, stock selection remains the key with continued weak underlying conditions. The only change was a shift to Neutral (from Greed) in Junk Bond Demand, which are not government sponsored. These higher risk corporate bonds increased slightly, as they did last week, but are also ex-dividend date sensitive, so the level change effect is minimal.
The VIX, measured by Market Volatility, inclined 2.4 points, settling in at 21.7, from 19.3. Tariff and negative economic news continued to dominate the price action and of the equities markets, with the Consumer Confidence and Sentiment lows. Also, the number of equities making 90-day lows and 90-day highs continued to remain very low all week, suggesting little momentum and sideways trading.
This week’s economic news included increased tension in the “tariff wars” between the U.S. and numerous other countries. However, the new tariff “deadline” date of April 2, is approaching this upcoming week, which is sure to ignite a move in the markets. The FOMC mid-week comments lowered the speculation of a June rate cut, as investors try to decipher between an economic slowdown and/or a recession. Negative earnings reports from chip leaders AMD and KLAC, and negative reading from the Leading Economic Index (LEI), did not help matters. The daily gyrations further supported our theory that emotion is the main driving factor of short-term market moves. Keep in mind that auto-trading algorithms also kick in around important price levels, and the major indexes are still sitting at the edge, or below, their 200-day moving averages.
Another notable fact, mentioned last week, is historically, after 14 or more days trading under the 8-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), any pullback in the S&P 500 to that level does not result in a price reversal 95% of the time. Contrarians and bargain hunters should beware that any bullish price action may be temporary for now, so proceed with caution.
Astrologically, as noted for the past several weeks, the planet Mars continues its aggressive energies in the sign of Cancer (until April), symbolizing the “protection of the home,” which has continued to be evident by the new administration’s determination to secure and protect the country over the past month and a half. Defensive stocks (including cybersecurity companies), insurance, and energy have been leading the market in recent weeks.
Aries season (March 21 – April 19), symbolizing fiery, determined, action-taking energies, is now in full effect, and the volatility has continued with the uncertainty of global financial conditions, and inconsistent tariff talk. Please review our Sign Language – Aries Season blog, dated 3-8-25 for more details.
As discussed, the current Venus Retrograde (March 1 – April 12), true to form, resulted in a strong market pullback (please review our recent Planet Power - Venus Retrograde blog, dated 2-17-25, for more details). This weekend Venus returns to the sign of Pisces for a brief time during its retrograde, bringing back some Piscean energies that further confuse matters. During the back-and-forth sign transits by Venus, the market volatility is expected to continue. As also noted, the planet Mercury is in retrograde in the sign of Aries (until April 7), and will remain in that sign until the last week of May. Mercury retrograde often results in added confusion and/or multiple price reversals (which has again occurred), signifying mixed communications. As both planets continue to move back and forth between Pisces and Aries, it is likely to jumble the energies of both signs, further distorting the clarity of the markets. Mercury and Venus were conjunct on March 9, and the very next day, Monday, March 10, saw a major market drop of 155 points on the S&P. They were conjunct again on Friday, March 28, when the S&P experienced another huge decline of 112 points. Expect more tumultuous price action with this active sky, together with all the personal planets’ changes of direction and signs.
Aries “season” is often associated with fast beginnings, that quickly fade (which has already occurred in the first week), so continue to be aware of potential “false breakouts,” and short-term rally reversals. Venus will then turn direct on April 13, and again returns to Aries from April 16 to June 6, strengthening its energies going forward.
The planet Neptune also transits into the sign of Aries this weekend, which we discussed fully in this week’s Planet Power – Neptune in Aries blog, dated 3-19-25. This will occur at the same time as the Solar Eclipse in Aries, which coincides with new beginnings (Aries and New Moon), and appeared to have rocked the markets on the last trading day prior to this event, with renewed fears of inflation (Neptune). We have been promoting that reducing share size on holdings and/or trades continues to be a consideration for those with a shorter-term investment time frame. Be especially cautious of “false breakouts” during this activity, as trading is more difficult.
Look for sectors including defense, pharmaceutical, insurance, communications, technology, gold/silver, and cryptocurrencies to continue to be in focus, again with likely continued volatility leading into April 2. For sustained rally’s, it is usually important for financials and technology to remain strong, which they recently have not. In the longer term, certain subsectors of the technology industry are likely to continue their advance into the future, including AI, robotics, quantum computing, and space development (with Pluto in Aquarius, and Uranus upcoming ingress to Gemini in mid-2025).
Gold (ruled by the Sun), and Silver (ruled by the Moon), resumed their upward climb again this week, after recently pulling back from all-time highs. Mars’ transit through Cancer, which resulted in gains on the previous occasion (from early September to early November of 2024), continues through early April. As we have expressed in recent months, any pullback in these metals has been short-lived, and they continue to be long-term buying opportunities on any declines. The Gold to Silver Ratio (covered in our publication) held steady this week, declining slightly from 91.5 to 90.5, indicating silver may currently be a better value than gold.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions/movements in the sky, and how they can affect moods, behaviors, world events, and financial markets.
