FEAR & GREED INDEX 35
The Fear & Greed Index (found on cnn.com) is one of the easiest indicators to use to determine current market emotion. This simple to read gauge, highlighted in our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), is measured in a range from 0-100, and currently reads 35 as of the close on Friday, February 21, 2025.
This figure moved down to the mid-Fear level, as it dropped 9 points from last week’s close of 44, all on Friday. The markets were essentially neutral during the week, oscillating in a narrow range, until a sudden plunge late Friday morning resulting in a 104-point drop for the day on the S&P. For the week, the S&P 500 decreased about 101 points from 6,114 to 6,013, just a few days after reaching another All-Time High. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also suffered losses of over 1,000 points, and the Nasdaq about 580 points, in the last two days of the week. The Russell 2000 small cap index continued to struggle as well, though the losses were not as severe.
The “Risk-On” sentiment held steady until Friday’s plunge, as commodities fell along with the markets, after also approaching all-time highs again mid-week. 10-year bond yields declined slightly, from 4.48%, to 4.43%, as this week’s FOMC meeting had little effect on the markets.
The 7 internal factors used to formulate this index are listed on the screen (below):
Market Momentum – (S&P 500 vs its 125-day moving avg) = EXTREME FEAR
Market Volatility (measured by the VIX) = NEUTRAL
Put to Call Ratio 5-day avg. (# of Puts (bearish) vs Calls (bullish) = GREED
Stock Price Strength (# of new 52-week highs vs new 52-week lows) = EXTREME FEAR
Stock Price Breadth (# of shares rising vs falling on NYSE) = FEAR
Safe-Haven Demand (which measures stocks vs bonds) = EXTREME FEAR
Junk Bond Demand (non-govt. bond yield spread) = FEAR
This week, 4 of the 7 factors changed levels, with Market Momentum, Stock Price Strength and Safe-Haven Demand all declining to the Extreme Fear level, coinciding with the late week plunge in the markets. Interestingly, the Put to Call Ratio remained at the Greed level, suggesting a bullish sentiment in the futures market. As mentioned for several weeks, the signs of continued weak underlying conditions indicate that we need to be very selective with stock choice.
The VIX, measured by Market Volatility, rose about 2.5 points on Friday, rising 3.4 points for the week, settling in at 18.2, from 14.8, technically remaining in Neutral territory, but sparking some nervousness.
This week’s major news was the recurring subpar economic readings, including Existing Home Sales, Consumer Sentiment, and Retail earnings (as well as others), which will be covered further in next weekend’s Indicator Insights - Monthly Update blog. These results continue to suggest interest rates should not have been suddenly cut in the Fall of 2024 (total of 0.75%). The continuous recent comments by the Fed, that there’s “no hurry” to cut rates now, a “wait and see” approach is being taken, along with “higher than expected” inflation results, confirms the same. Another noteworthy news item was the announcement of an investigation into United Healthcare, regarding deceptive billing practices.
Astrologically, the Mars planetary retrograde energies finally came to an end today, as Mars turned “direct.” Mars’ aggressiveness will continue, in the sign of Cancer (until April), however, signifying the “protection of the home,” evident by this month’s determination to secure and protect the country by the new administration. As noted last week, cybersecurity companies continued to show strength with strong recent earnings reports. The threat of global conflict remains under this aspect as well, as we have discussed in recent blogs. Many “hidden truths” and “deceptive practices” also continue to be uncovered, especially related to government and money (signified by Neptune and Saturn in Pisces). Pluto in Aquarius themes, which favors the “people” over “government” controls (discussed in previous Trader Transit, Planet Power, and weekly blogs), also continue as demonstrations and protests have not subsided.
Pisces season is now upon us, beginning on Wednesday, February 19 (please review our Sign Language – Pisces blog, dated 2-5-25 for more details). As noted, the sign of Aquarius’ “free and liberating” energies, have now been replaced by more confusing, delusionary, and theatrical Pisces energies. This has been on full display with the discovery, and reaction, to the wasteful government spending findings, and the United Healthcare investigation. Also, February is historically the 2nd weakest month for equities, especially the 2nd half of the month, which encompasses the beginning of Pisces season, and the volatility and uncertainty are likely to continue.
The planet Venus (money), now in the sign of Aries (ruled by Mars), symbolizes more aggressive (Mars) financial (Venus) energies, suggesting potentially sharper market price action in either direction. Aries is often associated with fast beginnings, that quickly fade, so be aware of potential false “breakouts.” Look for more possible reversals and volatility (causing consolidation) in the short term as a result. Venus Retrograde (beginning on March 1st and remaining until April 12), is usually accompanied by a market pullback, which may have just begun (please review this week’s Planet Power - Venus Retrograde blog, dated 2-17-25). During the retrograde, Venus will temporarily return to Pisces, again mixing these opposite energies.
During this period, there will also be a “double-whammy” as the planet Mercury turns retrograde mid-month, which often results in volatility and/or multiple reversals. As Venus moves back and forth between Pisces and Aries until early June, it is likely to jumble the energies of both signs. Mercury is positioned in the sign of Pisces (until March 2), and will return to the sign (from March 29 to April 16) during its retrograde period beginning on March 14, further confusing the clarity of market conditions. During its transit through Pisces, Mercury will also form brief conjunctions with Saturn, tomorrow (representing government/communications), and Neptune, on March 2nd (representing illusion/delusion), suggesting further uncovering of the unknown. It will also conjunct Venus (love and money) on both March 9th and 28th. Expect more tumultuous price action with this active sky, together with all the personal planets’ changes of direction, as well as mixed communications reflected by earnings reports and “expert” analysis. Reducing share size on holdings and/or trades might be a consideration for those with a shorter-term investment time frame. Be especially cautious of “false breakouts” during this activity.
Look for sectors such as financials, defense, pharmaceutical, communications, technology, gold/silver, and cryptocurrencies to continue to be in focus, again with some volatility. In the longer term, certain subsectors of the technology industry are likely to continue their advance into the future, including AI, robotics, quantum computing, and space development (with Pluto in Aquarius, and Uranus upcoming ingress to Gemini in mid-2025).
Gold (ruled by the Sun), and Silver (ruled by the Moon), resumed their climb to all-time highs again this week, before also pulling back of Friday. As recently noted, the previous Mars transit through Cancer (from early September to early November of 2024), resulted in gains in gold, and continues to be Mars’ position through early April. As we have also noted on several occasions recently, any pullback in these metals will likely be short-lived (as the dollar strength may be temporary) and they continue to be long-term buying opportunities on any declines. Be prepared, however, as the bullish cycle is getting old, suggesting a potential sizeable pullback. The Gold to Silver Ratio (covered in our publication) finished the week just over 91, indicating silver may currently be a slightly better value buy than gold once again.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions/movements in the sky, and how they can affect moods, behaviors, world events, and financial markets.
