FEAR & GREED INDEX 35
The Fear & Greed Index (found on cnn.com) is one of the easiest indicators to use to determine current market emotion. This simple to read gauge, highlighted in our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), is measured in a range from 0-100, and currently reads 35 as of the close on Friday, April 25, 2025.
This figure finally moved out of the Extreme Fear level this week, now sits in the mid-Fear level, as it rose 14 points from last weeks close of 21. The market has finally reacted to the historically low reading of 4 (less than 3 weeks ago), as we address in our publication and often in our weekly blogs. As noted, the market usually reacts to the furthest extremes with some type of reversal (with high probability). During this week, the S&P 500 rose about 243 points from 5,282 to 5,525, for a much-needed gain of 4.6%. Though the four major indexes, which include the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, and Russell 2000 (small cap index), remain in bear market territory (as well over 50% of their components continue to trade under their 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages), there were some signs of relief.
The “Risk-On” sentiment returned early in the week, as the massive amount of cash on the sidelines (also referred to as “dry powder”) started to be put to work back into stocks. The 10-year bond yields were flat, ending the week at 4.32%, after beginning the week at 4.33%. The stock and bond markets both settled down somewhat, which caused some of the cash to be put to work.
The 7 internal factors used to formulate this index are listed on the screen (below):
Market Momentum – (S&P 500 vs its 125-day moving avg) = EXTREME FEAR
Market Volatility (measured by the VIX) = NEUTRAL
Put to Call Ratio 5-day avg. (# of Puts (bearish) vs Calls (bullish) = EXTREME FEAR
Stock Price Strength (# of new 52-week highs vs new 52-week lows) = EXTREME FEAR
Stock Price Breadth (# of shares rising vs falling on NYSE) = FEAR
Safe-Haven Demand (which measures stocks vs bonds) = NEUTRAL
Junk Bond Demand (non-govt. bond yield spread) = GREED
This week, 3 of these 7 factors changed levels, as 3 of the 7 still remain in the Extreme Fear category, down from 5 last week. With Market Momentum, Stock Price Strength, and the Put to Call Ratio still showing Extreme Fear, we are not out of the woods yet, and patience is a virtue until conditions improve. As we have warned for several weeks, stock selection remains the key with continued weak underlying conditions.
The VIX itself, measured by Market Volatility, decreased 4.8 points, ending the week at 24.8, (from 29.6), which is significant, and correlates with the Fear & Greed Index rising, suggesting less angst among investors. Uncertainty continues, however, as the tariff negotiations continue to change daily, and the VIX is still a bit high for the markets liking.
Earnings season continued this week, with mixed results, which didn’t necessarily provide any direction for the market. The Bear market conditions improved somewhat, as 29% of all stocks contained within the 4 major indexes are now trading over their 200-day moving averages, (a slight improvement from 25% last week). Remember, as we have warned for several weeks, any bullish price action may be temporary, so proceed with caution as a potential bottom is being established. Though bottom fishing can be lucrative, the odds are not in your favor, and a true bullish trend will not begin again until over 50% of any index’ stocks are trading over the 200 MA.
Astrologically, as noted for the past several weeks, the planet Mars has now returned to the sign of Leo as of Friday, April 18, where it will remain until mid-June. This signifies a return to the sign position of early November to early January, when markets reached their highs after the election. Mars in Leo symbolizes aggressive action as well, which is evident with many global leaders becoming stubborn and combative regarding the tariff situation. This time, however, Mars is in opposition to Pluto, and Pluto is set to turn retrograde in the sign of Aquarius this coming week (until October). Pluto likes to break down and restructure, while Mars like to go full speed ahead, so beware more push and pull in the price action.
Taurus season has settled in (April 20 – May 20), signifying much less aggressive, and more “grounded” energies than Aries. Taurus normally provided a calming effect on the markets, as it is ruled by Venus, which has been reflected in the market volatility throughout the week. Please review our Sign Language – Taurus Season blog, dated 4-7-25 for more details.
The “Sell in May and Go Away” seasonal concept is also upon us, however, as noted in last year’s blog, dated 4-15-24, and last week’s blog, dated 4-18-25, that effect has not held true nearly as much in recent years, with July becoming the 2nd best performing month of the year. Venus (money) does remain in the sign of Pisces for a few more days (April 30), signifying the lingering Piscean energies of confusion, that the equities markets haven’t been able to shake. Despite some potential easing this week, as the tariff situation still hangs over the global economy, expect more uneven price action for the time being, should conflicting comments continue. Watch the VIX closely, as a steady drop would support less volatile price action, which is more suitable for swing trading. We do continue to promote reducing share size on holdings for those with a shorter-term investment time frame, until the coast is clear.
Leading sectors include Communications Services, as well as defensive, utilities, and gold/silver. Be aware, however, that a steady return to speculative/technology stocks, would affect the latter three. As previously stated, it is important for financials, technology, and industrials, to lead the way for a sustained rally. In the long run, sectors of the technology industry are likely to continue their advance into the future, including AI, robotics, quantum computing, and space development (with Pluto in Aquarius, and Uranus upcoming ingress to Gemini in mid-2025).
Gold (ruled by the Sun), and Silver (ruled by the Moon), were somewhat divergent this week, with gold cooling off a bit, and silver gaining slightly, despite a Friday decline. As we noted last week, the pullback was likely, as Mars entered Leo, after its 2nd recent successful stay in Cancer. The increased Risk-On sentiment also contributed to the gold pullback, while silver outperforming gold was also suggested, as the Gold to Silver Ratio (covered in our publication) became disproportionate after closing at 102 last week (and remaining at 100 this week), indicating silver continues to be a better value buy than gold. As we have expressed in recent months, any dip in these metals has been short-lived, and they continue to be long-term buying opportunities on any such declines.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions/movements in the sky, and how they can affect moods, behaviors, world events, and financial markets.
