FEAR & GREED INDEX 74
The Fear & Greed Index (found on cnn.com) is one of the easiest indicators to use to determine current market emotion. This simple to read gauge, highlighted in our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology - available on Amazon, is measured in a range from 0-100, and currently reads 74, as of the close on Friday, October 11, 2024.
This figure remained at the upper level of the Greed level this week, even with last Friday’s close of 74. This was supported by a slight increase of 65 points in the S&P 500, from 5,750 to 5,815, from the beginning of the week to the end. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 again registered All-Time Highs, while the Nasdaq continues to approach the same, after another late week push. As noted also week, a move into Extreme Greed would suggest a potential pullback in the near future.
The “Risk-On” sentiment continued this week as well, inspired by continued negative economic reports, including jobs creation, production, inflation, and sentiment, with the expectation of future rate cuts. The Bond market 10-year yields ended at 4.1%, exceeding 4% for the first time in 2 months, further assisting the equity market gains. Bond funds, including TLT, continued their descent, the opposite of what would be expected with the recent large rate cut, and suggestion of future cuts.
The 7 internal factors regarding this index, noted in previous updates, are listed below:
Market Momentum – (S&P 500 vs its 125-day moving avg) = GREED
Market Volatility (measured by the VIX) = NEUTRAL
Put to Call Ratio 5-day avg. (# of Puts (bearish) vs Calls (bullish) = GREED
Stock Price Strength (# of new 52-week highs vs new 52-week lows) = EXTREME GREED
Stock Price Breadth (# of shares rising vs falling on NYSE) = EXTREME GREED
Safe-Haven Demand (which measures stocks vs bonds) = EXTREME GREED
Junk Bond Demand (non-govt. bond yield spread) = GREED
Only 1 of the 7 factors changed levels this week, Junk Bond Demand, which flipped from, from Fear to Greed, joining the negative bond price action. All others continued the theme from last week, exuding greed levels across the board.
The VIX, measured by Market Volatility, remained in Neutral territory, despite closing the week at 20.5, rising from last week’s close at 18. This indicator again bounced around all week with the volatility and daily conflicting news. The 7 indicators continued to be in sync with each other, however, for the 4th straight week, continuing the less divergent overall market conditions.
Astrologically, as noted the last few weeks, the planet Uranus continues to be in Retrograde (in the sign of Taurus), until January 25, 2025, affecting markets, especially the technology sectors, as is typical of Uranus (the “disruptor”/tech). This was again evident with the immediate sudden trend reversal (Uranus) occurrence during the first week of September, when the Nasdaq dropped 1,000 points, followed by another reversal over the next week and a half, when the Nasdaq rose over 1,300 points. Additional smaller tech trend reversals have also occurred since. The Mars in Cancer energies also continued, signifying aggression, and protecting the homeland. Keep in mind that Cancer is the Ascendant/1st house of the United States Stock Market (USSM), where Mars energies are currently prominent.
As covered last week, and in previous blogs, the planets Mercury and Venus’ have also continued their shorter-term effects on the markets. Mercury, transiting from the sign of Libra today, October 13, to the sign of Scorpio, changes the landscape from calmer markets to more intense energies. Mercury will enter the sign of Scorpio just about a week prior to Scorpio season, remaining until November 2, just before the U.S. Presidential election (please see our Sign Language – Scorpio blog, dated 10-4-24). We also mentioned that Mercury and the Sun would form a square aspect together with Pluto around this time, suggesting “hidden truths” coming to light, thought the deception will continue.
We also noted that Venus (money) energies remain in effect, as it continues its transit through the sign of Scorpio (September 23 - October 17), where we expected financial secrets to be revealed. Once again, early in the week, the financial company Visa announced a plan to undergo a digital transformation, while more “unexpected” negative economic reports were revealed. Venus will be entering the sign of Sagittarius on October 18, remaining until November 11, where it tends to be more fun-loving, adventurous, ambitious, and less intense. This transit will coincide with a traditionally seasonally strong time of the year, especially when November arrives. Once again, however, we have the uncertainty of the Presidential election, and the aftershocks shortly after.
However, as Libra “season” comes to an end on October 22, and transitions to Scorpio season (through November 21), the fair and balanced energies of Libra may well give in to more intense symbolism of Scorpio, with the noted ingress of Mercury. Additionally, just 2 days ago, the planet Pluto’s retrograde in Capricorn (the government) came to an end, and it will slowly progress toward its ingress to Aquarius (the people) on November 20, after the U.S. Presidential election. There may be chaos and intensity throughout the country and the globe in reaction to the election results, which would again result in volatile markets. The U.S. equity markets have stayed afloat despite the uncertainty, with Pluto’s last stand in Capricorn, though change may be on the horizon. Looking back to our Planet Power – Neptune blog, dated 6-9-24, we find that the perception and reality regarding interest rates, debt, and the bond market seems to remain an “illusion,” or “delusion” regarding the true state of the global economy. It may take until after the U.S. Presidential election for the dust to start to settle.
For non-day traders, looking for longer-term value may serve better than simple trend following during this transit, as trends may be inconsistent. For shorter-term traders, continue to be flexible, control your emotions (Mars in Cancer), and do not hold on too long to any position that is showings signs of reversal, as volatility is likely to ramp up.
The defense/military/homeland sector remains a focus during this time frame. Mars in Cancer has just recently coincided with a sharp rise in leading cybersecurity stocks (defending the “home”), as discussed in previous blogs. The recent uptick in other sectors, including consumer discretionary (luxury), retail, and energy, may not last based on “real” economic conditions, although military conflict and holiday shopping may boost them for the time being. Should economic reports (and revisions) continue to be weak, sectors including consumer staples (necessities), defense, real estate, and healthcare may resume their uptrend. It would not be a surprise to see this week’s job creation report revised downward in the future. Recession conditions will also hit the retail and luxury industries hard, in addition to the transports, airlines, and oil.
Gold (ruled by the Sun), and Silver (ruled by the Moon), ended the week flat, after early week strength, based on the confusing data reports, but remain buying opportunities on any pullbacks. Remember that the general premise is when the dollar falls (which normally occurs during rate cuts), commodities will rise, especially these metals, as they are considered a “safe haven.” Also remember that ETFs which track gold (such as GLD), and silver (such as SLV) can be used to trade the market, as an alternative to holding the physical metal. Cryptocurrencies have also become active again during Venus’ transit through Libra (noted in our Sign Language-Libra blog), and has continued through the current Libra “season.”
***Full Disclosure: We currently hold a bullish position in SLV, since December of 2023.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions/movements in the sky, and how they can affect moods, behaviors, world events, and financial markets.
