FEAR & GREED INDEX 20
The Fear & Greed Index (found on cnn.com) is one of the easiest indicators to use to determine current market emotion. This simple to read gauge, highlighted in our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), is measured in a range from 0-100, and currently reads 20 as of the close on Friday, February 28, 2025.
This figure moved into the Extreme Fear level, for the first time since December 19 (and previously mid-August), as it dropped 15 points from last week’s close of 35. It did reach a low of 18 by Thursday’s close, likely signifying an end to the current panic selling in the near future. As we focus on in our publication, and weekly blogs, the markets usually react quickly to extreme conditions. For the week, the S&P 500 only declined about 59 points from 6,013 to 5,954, due to Friday’s late rally, minimizing the effect of the pullback. Remember, the major indexes are only 2 weeks removed from All-Time Highs, though the Russell 2000 small cap index broke support this week and is in a bear market.
The “Risk-On” sentiment disappeared, not surprisingly, which carried over to cryptocurrencies and commodities (which approached all-time highs just last week), until late on Friday. 10-year bonds rose, with yields declining from 4.43%, to 4.2%, as the U.S. Dollar continued to weaken.
The 7 internal factors used to formulate this index are listed on the screen (below):
Market Momentum – (S&P 500 vs its 125-day moving avg) = EXTREME FEAR
Market Volatility (measured by the VIX) = NEUTRAL
Put to Call Ratio 5-day avg. (# of Puts (bearish) vs Calls (bullish) = EXTREME FEAR
Stock Price Strength (# of new 52-week highs vs new 52-week lows) = EXTREME FEAR
Stock Price Breadth (# of shares rising vs falling on NYSE) = FEAR
Safe-Haven Demand (which measures stocks vs bonds) = EXTREME FEAR
Junk Bond Demand (non-govt. bond yield spread) = FEAR
This week, only 1 of the 7 factors changed levels, with the Put to Call Ratio finally joining Market Momentum, Stock Price Strength, and Safe-Haven Demand at the Extreme Fear level, as the markets continued to sell off until late Friday. Last week we noted that it was interesting that the PCR had remained at the Greed level, but it ultimately succumbed to the pressure. As we also warned for several weeks, stock selection was key with the weak underlying conditions.
The VIX, measured by Market Volatility, spiked above 22 early on Friday in the week, but dropped back to the 19 range by day’s end. Overall, it rose about 1.4 points in a highly volatile week, settling in at 19.6, from 18.2, technically remaining in Neutral territory, but sparking more nervousness among investors.
This week’s major news included the Consumer Confidence report reflecting a large decrease of 5 points (the largest monthly decline in 4 years), falling to an 8-month low. These low levels are finally revealing the weakness in the economy, from the perspective of the consumer, contributing to the low retail spending and home purchasing figures. The equities markets seemed to wake up to these issues by months end, again supporting our narrative that emotion is the main driving factor of short-term market moves. Tech giant Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings results and forward guidance were very positive (as usual), however it couldn’t shake the nervousness of the markets. Please see yesterday’s Indicator Insights – Monthly Review blog for further details.
Astrologically, the planet Mars turned “direct,” ending its retrograde period, as we have discussed over the past few months. Mars’ aggressiveness will continue in the sign of Cancer (until April), however, continuing to signify the “protection of the home,” evident by the new administration’s determination to secure and protect the country over the past month. As noted over the past few weeks, cybersecurity companies continued to show strength after strong earnings reports. The threat of global conflict remains under this aspect as well, as we have also discussed in recent blogs. Many “hidden truths” and “deceptive practices” continue to be uncovered, especially related to government and money (signified by Neptune and Saturn in Pisces). Pluto in Aquarius themes, which favors the “people,” over “government” controls, (detailed in previous Trader Transit, Planet Power, and weekly blogs), also continue as demonstrations and protests have not subsided.
We have now settled into Pisces season (since February 19) which symbolizes confusing, delusionary, and theatrical Pisces energies (please review our Sign Language – Pisces blog, dated 2-5-25). As noted, these energies have replaced the “free and liberating” Aquarius’ theme, and have been on full display with the discovery, and reaction, to the wasteful government spending findings. We also warned that February is historically the 2nd weakest month for equities, especially the 2nd half, which encompasses the beginning of Pisces season. As expected, the volatility and uncertainty have increased in the equity markets, resulting in the universal price dips.
The recently discussed planet Venus (money) retrograde, starts this weekend, in the sign of Aries (ruled by Mars), symbolizing continued aggressive (Mars) financial (Venus) energies. This suggests potentially sharper market price action in either direction (please review our recent Planet Power - Venus Retrograde blog, dated 2-17-25, for more details). Aries is often associated with fast beginnings, that quickly fade, so continue to be aware of potential “false breakouts,” as well as short-term reversals and volatility. Venus retrograde (remaining until April 12), is usually accompanied by a market pullback, which appears to have started just a bit early (not uncommon). During the retrograde, Venus will temporarily return to Pisces, again mixing these opposite energies.
During this period, there will also be a “double-whammy” as the planet Mercury turns retrograde mid-month (until April 7), which often results in volatility and/or multiple price reversals. As Venus moves back and forth between Pisces and Aries until early June, it is likely to jumble the energies of both signs. Mercury will leave the sign of Pisces this weekend and will also enter Aries, but will return to the sign (from March 29 to April 16) during its retrograde period, which begins on March 14, further confusing the clarity of market conditions. At the outset of this week, Mercury ran into Saturn (restriction), for a brief conjunction, which resulted in an about face in the equity markets on Monday and Tuesday. Mercury is now conjunct with the planet Neptune, as of today (representing illusion/delusion), suggesting further revealing of the unknown. It will also conjunct Venus (love and money) on both March 9th and 28th. Expect more tumultuous price action with this active sky, together with all the personal planets’ changes of direction. Reducing share size on holdings and/or trades might be a consideration for those with a shorter-term investment time frame. Be especially cautious of “false breakouts” during this activity.
Look for sectors such as financials, defense, pharmaceutical, communications, technology, gold/silver, and cryptocurrencies to continue to be in focus, again with likely volatility and a possible bounce. In the longer term, certain subsectors of the technology industry are likely to continue their advance into the future, including AI, robotics, quantum computing, and space development (with Pluto in Aquarius, and Uranus’ upcoming ingress to Gemini in mid-2025).
Gold (ruled by the Sun), and Silver (ruled by the Moon), pulled back from all-time highs this week, despite the weakness in the dollar. As we noted in last week’s blog, the bullish cycle is getting rather old, suggesting a potential pullback. Mars transit through Cancer, which resulted in gains on the previous occasion (from early September to early November of 2024), continues through early April. As we have also suggested recently, any pullback in these metals will likely be short-lived (as the dollar strength may be temporary) and they continue to be long-term buying opportunities on any declines. The Gold to Silver Ratio (covered in our publication) reached 91.7 by weeks end, indicating silver may currently be a better value buy than gold once again.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions/movements in the sky, and how they can affect moods, behaviors, world events, and financial markets.
