FEAR & GREED INDEX 21
The Fear & Greed Index (found on cnn.com) is one of the easiest indicators to use to determine current market emotion. This simple to read gauge, highlighted in our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), is measured in a range from 0-100, and currently reads 21 as of the close on Friday, March 14, 2025.
This figure remains in the Extreme Fear level, despite another Friday rally (which is becoming quite common), rising just 1 point from last weeks close of 20. As we focus on in our publication and weekly blogs, the market usually reacts quickly the further into extreme conditions the reading becomes. In another volatile week (as expected), the S&P 500 declined about 132 points from 5,770 to 5,638, a decrease of over 2.2%, falling to its lowest weekly close since mid-September. Remember, the major indexes are only a few weeks removed from All-Time Highs, and the decline has been quick. Currently, the four major indexes; The S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, and Russell 2000 (small cap index) have all slipped into bear market territory, as they have all moved under their 200-day moving averages, and all have less far less than 50% of included stocks trading under their 200-day MA.
The “Risk-Off” sentiment continued for the most part, until Friday, which included cryptocurrencies. 10-year bonds decreased slightly, with yields rising from 4.3%, to 4.32%, as the U.S. Dollar continues to be weak. The current “risk-off” strategy, however, has shifted from the “flight-to-quality” approach of selling stocks to buying bonds, to the more conservative approach of selling stocks and holding cash, as Consumer Sentiment remained low.
The 7 internal factors used to formulate this index are listed on the screen (below):
Market Momentum – (S&P 500 vs its 125-day moving avg) = EXTREME FEAR
Market Volatility (measured by the VIX) = NEUTRAL
Put to Call Ratio 5-day avg. (# of Puts (bearish) vs Calls (bullish) = EXTREME FEAR
Stock Price Strength (# of new 52-week highs vs new 52-week lows) = EXTREME FEAR
Stock Price Breadth (# of shares rising vs falling on NYSE) = EXTREME FEAR
Safe-Haven Demand (which measures stocks vs bonds) = EXTREME FEAR
Junk Bond Demand (non-govt. bond yield spread) = EXTREME GREED
This week, only 1 of the 7 factors changed levels (the VIX), as 5 of the 7 remain in the Extreme Fear level, due to the continued sell off most of the week until Friday. As we have warned for several weeks, stock selection was key with the weak underlying conditions.
The VIX, measured by Market Volatility, experienced another volatile week, spiking to 28, before cooling off on Friday. Overall, it declined 1.6 points, or almost 7%, settling in at 21.7, from 23.3. Investor nervousness and uncertainty is likely to continue as ever-changing tariff news continues to dominate the price action.
This week’s economic news included slightly favorable CPI and PPI reports (which measure inflation) and the continuing “tariff wars” between the U.S. and numerous other countries. The daily gyrations further supported our theory that emotion is the main driving factor of short-term market moves. Keep in mind that auto-trading algorithms also kick in around important price levels, and the major indexes are still sitting at the edge, or below, their 200-day moving averages. In last week’s Chart Chat – Bull or Bear blog, dated 3-8-25, we noted that the overall market included only 32% of stocks making 90-day highs, well below the 50% bull/bear gauge. That number rose slightly this week, to 37.5%, only based on Friday’s rally. Also, the number of equities making 90-day lows far exceeded those making 90-day highs all week.
Another notable fact is, historically, after 14 or more days trading under the 8-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), any pullback in the S&P 500 to that level does not result in a price reversal 95% of the time. Contrarians and bargain hunters should beware that Friday’s price action may be temporary, so proceed with caution.
On the positive side, Quarter-End Window Dressing (discussed in our publication and previous blogs), is approaching over the next week or two. Funds managers often re-balance their portfolios near the end of each quarter, adding capital to strong stocks. Together with the extreme levels of the Fear & Greed Index, it could provide a market bounce.
Astrologically, as noted for several weeks, the planet Mars continues its aggressive energies in the sign of Cancer (until April), symbolizing the “protection of the home,” which has been evident by the new administration’s determination to secure and protect the country over the past month and a half. Defensive stocks, including cybersecurity companies, which had showed strength (with strong earnings reports) before falling victim to the “sell everything” theme, may present a good buying opportunity on the decline. The threat of global conflict remains under this aspect as well, as we have also discussed in recent blogs. Many “hidden truths” and “deceptive practices” continue to be uncovered, especially related to government and money (signified by Neptune and Saturn in Pisces). Pluto in Aquarius themes, which favors the “people,” over “government” controls, (discussed in previous Trader Transit, Planet Power, and weekly blogs), also continue as divisive demonstrations and protests have not subsided.
As we continue to pass through Pisces season, which symbolizes confusing, delusionary, and theatrical Pisces energies (please review our Sign Language – Pisces blog, dated 2-5-25), the volatility continues with the uncertainty of global financial conditions.
As discussed, Venus Retrograde (which began March 1), in the sign of Aries (ruled by Mars), true to form, has resulted in a strong market pullback (please review our recent Planet Power - Venus Retrograde blog, dated 2-17-25, for more details). The continued aggressive Mars energies while Venus transits between Aries and Pisces suggests continued volatility. Aries “season” is now on the horizon as well (beginning March 21), and is often associated with fast beginnings, that quickly fade, so continue to be aware of potential “false breakouts,” and short-term rally reversals. During this retrograde, Venus will temporarily return to Pisces (from March 29 to April 16), again mixing these opposite energies.
As also noted, the planet Mercury has now turned retrograde (on Friday, March 14), which will last through April 7), while also in the sign of Aries. Mercury retrograde often results in added confusion and/or multiple price reversals (sudden major rally on Friday), signifying mixed communications. As both planets will move back and forth between Pisces and Aries during their retrogrades, it is likely to jumble the energies of both signs, further distorting the clarity of the markets. Mercury and Venus were conjunct on March 9, and the very next day (Monday, March 10), saw a huge market drop of 155 points on the S&P. They will again conjunct on Friday, March 28. Expect more tumultuous price action with this active sky, together with all the personal planets’ changes of direction. Reducing share size on holdings and/or trades might be a consideration for those with a shorter-term investment time frame. Be especially cautious of “false breakouts” during this activity, as trading is more difficult.
Look for sectors such as financials, defense, pharmaceutical, insurance, communications, technology, gold/silver, and cryptocurrencies to continue to be in focus, again with likely continued volatility. For sustained rally’s, it is usually important for financials and technology to remain strong. In the longer term, certain subsectors of the technology industry are likely to continue their advance into the future, including AI, robotics, quantum computing, and space development (with Pluto in Aquarius, and Uranus upcoming ingress to Gemini in mid-2025).
Gold (ruled by the Sun), and Silver (ruled by the Moon), resumed their upward climb again this week, as the dollar remained weak, after recently pulling back from all-time highs. As we noted the last few weeks, the bullish cycle is getting rather old, supporting a pullback or consolidation. Mars’ transit through Cancer, which resulted in gains on the previous occasion (from early September to early November of 2024), continues through early April. As we have expressed in recent months, any pullback in these metals will likely be short-lived (as long as the dollar remains weak) and they continue to be long-term buying opportunities on any declines. The Gold to Silver Ratio (covered in our publication) fell slightly by weeks end, from 89.5 to 88.3, indicating gold value was gaining on silver over the last few weeks.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions/movements in the sky, and how they can affect moods, behaviors, world events, and financial markets.
