FEAR & GREED INDEX 39
The Fear & Greed Index (found on cnn.com) is one of the easiest indicators to use to determine current market emotion. This simple to read gauge, highlighted in our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology - available on Amazon, is measured in a range from 0-100, and currently reads 39 as of the close on Friday, February 7, 2025.
This figure fell back to the Fear category, as it dropped 7 points from last Friday’s close of 46. The S&P 500 decreased about 15 points from 6,040 to 6,025, closing the week down less than .05%. All the major indices, including the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq, and the Russell 2000 small cap index, fell slightly after mid-week gains, in another non-directional price action week.
The “Risk-On” sentiment declined by weeks end, as commodities stabilized, and the 10-year bond yields declined slightly, closing the week down .04, from 4.54%, to 4.5%. The perception of possible rate cuts in 2025 remained, at least for the time being, combined with Friday’s weak jobs report.
The 7 internal factors used to formulate this index are listed below:
Market Momentum – (S&P 500 vs its 125-day moving avg) = FEAR
Market Volatility (measured by the VIX) = NEUTRAL
Put to Call Ratio 5-day avg. (# of Puts (bearish) vs Calls (bullish) = FEAR
Stock Price Strength (# of new 52-week highs vs new 52-week lows) = EXTREME FEAR
Stock Price Breadth (# of shares rising vs falling on NYSE) = FEAR
Safe-Haven Demand (which measures stocks vs bonds) = FEAR
Junk Bond Demand (non-govt. bond yield spread) = NEUTRAL
This week, 4 of the 7 factors changed levels, with Stock Price Breadth slipping back into the Fear level on Friday’s large market decline. The move cancelled out the recent improvement in the number of stocks participating in the recent rally. Safe-Haven Demand returned to Fear, after a 1-week delve into Greed, as commodities generally rose, and “Risk-On” (technology and cryptocurrencies) subsided again by week’s end. As mentioned for several weeks, the signs of continued weak underlying conditions indicate that we need to be very selective with stock choice.
The VIX, measured by Market Volatility, rose just 0.1 points during the current week, settling in at 16.5, from 16.4, during the back-and-forth price action, technically remaining in Neutral territory.
Last weekend’s tariff news had an immediate impact on equity markets first thing on Monday morning, as Mexico, Canada, and China were reported to have had implementation. This initially affected almost all industries across the board, with the exception of commodities, which continued to rise. During the week markets continued the uncertainty, as we have suggested in recent blogs.
Astrologically, Uranus is now “direct,” as reported last week, although the Mars planetary retrograde energies remain in effect. Mars’ aggressiveness, in sign of Cancer, continues to signify the “protection of the home.” This has again been evident by the determination to secure and protect the country by the new administration. Cybersecurity companies like Fortinet (FTNT), Crowdstrike (CRWD), and others in the industry showed strength with strong earnings.
Mars will finally end its retrograde in the 3rd week of February, but will remain in Cancer until early April. The threat of global conflict continues under this aspect, as we have discussed in recent blogs. Many “hidden truths” and “deceptive practices” have also continued to be uncovered this week, related to money (signified by Neptune and Saturn in Pisces). Pluto in Aquarius themes, which favors the “people” over “government” controls (discussed in previous Trader Transit, Planet Power, and weekly blogs), appear to be ramping up, as demonstrations and protests on both sides flared up this week.
Aquarius “season” (with the Sun in that sign), will soon be approaching its end, on February 18, and giving way to Pisces season (please review our Sign Language – Pisces blog, dated 2-5-25). As noted, the sign of Aquarius signifies a “free and liberating” type of energy, which will be replaced by more confusing, delusionary, theatrical energies. February is historically the 2nd weakest month for equities, especially the 2nd half of the month, which encompasses the beginning of Pisces season. Once again, the volatility is likely to continue.
The planet Venus (money), has now moved into the sign of Aries (ruled by Mars), as of last Tuesday, February 4. The generally positive “vibe,” illusions of grandeur, and idealism of Pisces, has been replaced by more aggressive Mars energies, suggesting potentially sharper price action in either direction. Look for more possible reversals and volatility in the short term as a result. Remember that Mars is in retrograde, and has moved back into the sign of Cancer for the time being. There is also a Venus retrograde approaching, beginning on March 1st, and remaining until April 12, as well as a Mercury retrograde, a few weeks later, which also often results in market pullbacks. During this time frame Venus will move back and forth between Pisces and Aries until early June. We will discuss this in an upcoming blog next week.
The planet Mercury has now also entered the sign of Aquarius (Monday, January 27), and will remain until February 22. Mercury’s short conjunction with Pluto is bound to spark much controversy and outspoken arguments regarding the transformation in the U.S.
Look for sectors such as financials, defense, pharmaceutical, communications, technology, gold/silver, and cryptocurrencies to continue to be in focus, again with some volatility. In the longer term, certain subsectors of the technology industry are likely to continue their advance into the future as well, including AI, robotics, quantum computing, and space development (Pluto in Aquarius, and Uranus ingress Gemini mid-2025).
Gold (ruled by the Sun), and Silver (ruled by the Moon), rose again early this week, as noted, as treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar stabilized, and the “Risk-On” sentiment subsided. Also, the recent Mars transit through Cancer (from early September to early November), resulted in gains in gold, which is now Mars’ position again through early April. As we have noted on several occasions recently, any decline in metals will more than likely be short-lived (as the dollar strength may be temporary) and continue to be long-term buying opportunities on any pullbacks. The Gold to Silver ratio (covered in our publication) touched 90 again by week’s end, indicating silver may currently be a slightly better value buy than gold.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions/movements in the sky, and how they can affect moods, behaviors, world events, and financial markets.
